UCERF3-ETAS
Description
The UCERF3-ETAS (Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast – Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence) model is a prototype operational earthquake forecasting tool for California. It builds upon the long-term UCERF3-TD model, integrating including on-fault renewal model statistics (elastic rebound) with short-term aftershock probabilities. It produces stochastic catalogs of seismicity including aftershocks from both observed and modeled events as well as spontaneous events sampled from the UCERF3-TD model. Simulated events occur both on and off explicitly modeled faults.
Contributing
UCERF3-ETAS-Launcher GitHub repository (https://github.com/opensha/ucerf3-etas-launcher/)
References
Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Morgan T. Page, William H. Savran, Nicholas van der Elst; Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS). The Seismic Record 2021;; 1 (2): 117–125. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0320210017
Kevin R. Milner, Edward H. Field, William H. Savran, Morgan T. Page, Thomas H. Jordan; Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence with the UCERF3‐ETAS Model. Seismological Research Letters 2020;; 91 (3): 1567–1578. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220190294
Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst, Thomas H. Jordan, Andrew J. Michael, Bruce E. Shaw, Maximilian J. Werner; A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2017;; 107 (3): 1049–1081. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160173
Edward H. Field, Thomas H. Jordan, Morgan T. Page, Kevin R. Milner, Bruce E. Shaw, Timothy E. Dawson, Glenn P. Biasi, Tom Parsons, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrew J. Michael, Ray J. Weldon, Peter M. Powers, Kaj M. Johnson, Yuehua Zeng, Karen R. Felzer, Nicholas van der Elst, Christopher Madden, Ramon Arrowsmith, Maximilian J. Werner, Wayne R. Thatcher; A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Seismological Research Letters 2017;; 88 (5): 1259–1267. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170045